Regional crop 2012 size outlook
According to the information gathered from major vine growing areas of Iran which includes 6 regions, the crop size in regions such as Western Azerbaijan, Eastern Azerbaijan, Malayer and Takistan the yielded crop is forecasted to be in a very good condition. In other regions such as Abhar and Ghouchan we have had a small frost and hailstorm damages are we’re predicting smaller size of crop comparing to last year. Yet considering the general crop size, we are anticipating a slight growth in crop size compared to last year’s crop.
The concerns that most of the farmers and growers have is chances of having rain during the conversion period and also the possibility of excessive summer heat wave that damages the crop. Other than that we can expect to have approximately 170,000 tons of all kinds of Raisins and if we deduct the local consumption of 30,000 tons, we have a figure of 140,000 tons ‘ready to export’ goods.
Iranian Raisins (Including Sultanas, Thompson Seedless Raisins, Golden Raisins and Green Raisins) Total crop size 2012 - Comparison chart
*Figure 1 shows the comparison chart of crop size during the past 4 years.
The market is rapidly running out of 2011 crop stocks and nearly in all regions there is nothing much left of the raw material stocks. In general we are expecting to have roughly 10,000 tons of the 2011 crop left which will soon be sold before new crop is in the market. As result we are not expecting to have any carry forward from 2011 crop to 2012.
Almost 90% of the old crop has been exported and as result we have experienced a sharp increase in prices during March. The increase reaches almost 30% when compared to the price levels in October 2011.
Recent fluctuations in exchange rate between major foreign currencies and Iranian Rials has caused a general growth in some major cost drivers, yet the weakening Rials has kept the prices balanced and yet competitive.
Considering the exchange rate trend, we’re expecting that the price levels to stay the same and then start to go down as the new crop enters the market.
Get the latest industry updates, Crop reports and share your thoughts with others ...
Tel: +98 21 887 52 333
Email, Call us or send us a quick message